Today on ABC radio, I heard Fiona Sewell interviewing a public transport advocate who was bemoaning the congestion that occurs on our roads, and I don’t disagree with his sentiments. He was particularly focused on the cities southern access and the seriously under-utilised rail corridor that follows the highway most of the way into town. His suggestion was that instead of spending money on the improving the road, the money should instead be allocated to the railway so that it can be duplicated and used as a suburban commuter service. Now this I have problems with.

I am a big supporter of rail transport, and happen to know a bit about how they work. However some of the assumptions made by the spokesperson for this group are a little tenuous and should be analysed, together with the overall concept of the proposal.

I also apologise that I was in the car and was listening to this on the radio, so I could not take any notes, so this is written relying on my dodgy memory. It also means that I don’t have the persons name who was interviewed, nor the name of his group. Hopefully the trusty commenters on this site will fill in some of the gaps for me.

Lets start with costs. When asked about cost of this project, it was clear that the interviewee had not done a full cost analysis, nor did he demonstrate any particular understanding of how railways work. It is just a little more complicated than chucking in some extra railway tracks. But lets start costs.

It was stated that if the money allocated for the southern access road upgrade was reallocated to the and halved again ‘that would be about right’. Sorry. That would be about right doesn’t cut it. One of the biggest criticisms of government projects is cost over runs, and with fiscal policy tightening in tough economic times, any lobby group going to Government with a proposal needs to have it accurately costed and with a cost benefit analysis to go with it. But using his numbers, we know that the allocation for the southern access upgrade is $150M. Half again makes it $225M. So now we have a budget (best of luck getting it)

There are a range of numbers that can be used for railway construction. From the Victorian department of Infrastructure there is double track surface rail at $1.9M per Km in 2002 dollars. This becomes $2.34M in 2008 dollars (which is all the RBA inflation calculator goes up to). This does not include land acquisitions, and with with any luck the proposed line can be built in the current corridor. That’s double track, we already have one, but you can’t actually just half the cost. Compliance costs to work adjacent to a live running line are going exhaust most of that assumed saving. In other words protecting the workers, and the trains while work progresses. Its cheaper to work a green fields site in the long run. Another example we could use is a recent line that was build in Geraldton WA, were 12 km of single track was laid on an alignment built generously enough for two tracks. This line cost $88M at near enough to $7M per Km. This is a completed costs that would include signalling, bridges, and other infrastructure required to support a railway. For the purpose of our railway. Lets get our track down for $2M per Km

Cairns to Gordonvale is 24 km. That’s $48M. Looking good so far. There are 8 bridges on the section between Cairns and Gordonvale, so that is going to anywhere from one to two million per bridge. We will split the difference and assume $1.5M, so that’s another $12M. Now what about all those level crossings. Running the trains at the proposed frequency is going to need some serious upgrade work, especially when you can have trains coming from either direction. There are 24 level crossing in the section and some already have adequate protection, and some are just farm crossings. But that will still leave about half of the crossings needing an upgrade at an average of $300k per crossing. So 12 crossings is $3.6, but we’ll up that to $4M just to be safe. $64M so far. But we haven’t purchased any trains, stations or signalling yet.

Signals are the key to railway safety when you are running frequencies proposed by this group. These a placed every few hundred metres so you can run your trains five minutes apart which is what talked about. The Vic DOI price signalling at $0.995M per Km. Rounding up to be safe, lets say an even Mill, that is another $24M for our railway. Up to $88M

We are going to need some trains to run on this system. Trains travelling at 5 minutes apart was mentioned. A train takes 40 minutes to travel from Cairns to Gordonvale. Commuter trains will be able to do it quicker, but if you plant a bunch of stations on the route, then it will still take 40 mintues at best. A five minute headway means at any given time, there will be 5 trains on the route. Assuming that the peak travel time is between 0700 and 0900 and then from 1600 to 1800 (as is indicated by the traffic on the road) then you need another eight going in the other direction to keep a constant stream of trains maintaining the peak headways. Sixteen trains. You need a few up your sleeve for maintenance, overhaul or defect repair so a fleet of 20 trains should do it. These must be built new, because there are simply none on the second hand market. QR use to have a fleet of over 20 two car railmotor sets, and these used to operate all over the state. Most are now gone. So if a new generation of two car railmotor is brought into service you need to purchase forty units. Allow about $3m per car, as this is about the going rate of new rolling stock coming out of the factory in Maryborough. $120M. We are now up to $208M, but we haven’t considered maintenance facilities, (Portsmith would need to be upgraded) sidings, stations, car parks, and one or two other minor issues that probably should be considered.

The capacity of each railmotor set would be around 100 seats. So we can move 1200 people an hour if they were seated. Crush loading can up the anti to maybe 2000 people an hour. That’s not bad, and would make a nice ding in the road congestion. But if we’ve spend all that money, how will we guarantee we’d get that sort of patronage?

You could buy less trains, have greater headways (say 15 minutes – they aspire to 15 minute frequencies in Brisbane), but you won’t make much of impact on congestion. In fact, you’re getting back to the capabilities of buses. A single route might benefit the people living along the southern corridor, but remember, not everybody works in the City. Many of Cairns industrial areas would not be served by the rail and lots of our potential passengers work in those areas, nor would it benefit anybody living north and west of Earlville. This is a big chunk of the population. So although we might try to justify the railway against the population of a city the size of Cairns, you are only catering to a population that is a quarter of the total. And is Joe Blow from Timberlea, or Pyramid estate, really going to bother to drive, or catch a bus to the station, ride the train then potentially need to transfer to another means of transport to get to his ultimate destination? This is a major cultural change.

How will the problem of the long distance trains and the Kuranda Scenic trains be dealt with? These trains need considerable time at the platform to load their passengers and provisions, and the solution is either a dedicated long distance platform or new suburban station. Remember, we have trains arriving and departing every five to fifteen minutes. Where to put it? What cost?

And what about that investment in rolling stock? It will be well utilised for no more than four hours a day, then most will sit in a siding or yard for the remainder. This is a problem with most public transport is its off peak utilisation.

Unfortunately the answer for the congestion to the south of Cairns is buses. Upgrade the highway, but consider dedicated bus lanes, especially for peak hours. Lets face it, buses are far more versatile and can go anywhere there is a road. If you’re lucky, that could mean right out side your door or your work. They are cheaper to procure, but yes, in the long run they are not so environmentally friendly as a train.

Yes, the railway line south of Cairns needs improvement. For Freight trains. Lets look at getting some long distance trucks off the road, and flood proofing the railway line while the adjacent road is being done.

Cheers,

The Ox